Will anybody use Tesla’s robotaxis after they come to Austin? In all probability not

Tesla
is working furiously to hitch the robotaxi market, and to nobody’s shock, the preliminary launch venue is slated to be Austin, Texas — dwelling to the corporate’s world HQ. Talks with the Metropolis of Austin have been underway for months, and the automaker is planning to deploy a small fleet of

Model Y
s by the tip of June or July, in line with CEO Elon Musk. Its Full Self-Driving (FSD) platform has additionally been mounting enhancements.

This is the factor, although — whereas I am presently in Edmonton, I spent over a decade residing in Austin, full with a Texan spouse and baby to show it. Realizing the town, I’ve critical doubts about whether or not Tesla’s robotaxis will achieve any traction there, and never simply due to

FSD’s spotty track record
.

The unpopularity contest

Misjudging your viewers

Whereas it is sensible to launch in Austin from a logistical perspective, the fact is that Elon Musk is deeply unpopular with numerous locals, given his right-wing politics. Austin is a famously liberal metropolis, thanks partially to establishments like its music scene and the College of Texas at Austin. There is a notable LGBTQ+ district on 4th Road, and one in all its best-known occasions is Eeyore’s Birthday, a free competition filled with issues like drum circles and wild costumes. There are conservative Austinites — significantly within the Republican-dominated Capitol constructing — however within the 2024 Presidential elections, over 68% of Travis County voted for Kamala Harris.

Many locals are employed by Tesla, to make certain, however even a few of them dislike their controversial boss. And the Tesla showroom in The Area has been the location of a number of protests attacking Musk’s affiliation with US President Donald Trump, to not point out different figures within the far-right.

I am anticipating numerous Austinites to not solely ignore a Tesla robotaxi service, however actively boycott it. Teams could develop the present protests, and there is even the danger of vandalism and sabotage, given different well-publicized incidents across the US. Till Musk is compelled out of Tesla — assuming that ever occurs — there is a distinct risk that the one clients utilizing his robotaxis will probably be vacationers, Republicans, and apolitical varieties.

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Going through the competitors (and the town)

Penned in by Alphabet and MoPac

Waymo

Even when Austin had been as solidly Republican as Galveston, Tesla would nonetheless be going through one other main impediment: Waymo. Alphabet’s robotaxi service has been totally operational in Austin (by way of Uber) since March 2025, and was working in different cities previous to that. It isn’t solely firmly established in metropolis limits, however within the robotaxi trade usually, with a commanding lead over different US rivals like Zoox.

Tesla does have a bonus in that it has been in a position to take a look at FSD in a variety of circumstances, because of a mixture of its personal information and that from non-public automobile homeowners. It stays to be seen, nonetheless, if that may translate into the robotaxi world, a lot much less beat Waymo’s personal observe report. Tesla has been conducting some advance testing on Austin streets, so it is at the very least conscious that it may well’t hit the bottom operating.

On prime that, Austin itself is liable to be an impediment. There is a motive Waymo solely operates in a small space from Parker Lane within the south to Hyde Park within the north — getting wherever else is sophisticated with out taking highways like MoPac (Loop 1), I35, and 183, and robotaxi companies typically keep away from highways in mild of the dangers concerned. Tesla will in all probability should function below the identical circumstances, intensifying its competitors with Waymo and limiting what number of passengers it may well entice. Big suburban areas like Spherical Rock and Pflugerville (each of which I’ve lived in) will probably be out of attain, and main company places of work belonging to Apple and Dell will probably be inaccessible.

I am not even assured Tesla’s FSD tech will have the ability to deal with Austin terrain (reliably). Having pushed these streets myself, I do know that there are many awkward intersections, by no means thoughts attempting to navigate them throughout development, rush hour, or the annual SXSW competition that pulls in hundreds of individuals and blocks off downtown. Austinites are already complaining about how Waymo autos carry out — I can solely think about the nightmare of a newcomer multiplying the variety of robotaxis on the street. All robotaxis are likely to drive overly cautiously, typically impeding visitors, so there’s the potential for some critical visitors jams, significantly understanding that taxis from one firm haven’t got a method of speaking with these from one other. A Waymo and a Mannequin Y stopped on a street like sixth or Congress would generate chaos.

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Is the state of affairs actually that dire?

Some closing ideas

Tesla

In all probability not from Tesla’s perspective. It is planning to begin with simply 10 to twenty autos, and there is virtually definitely a marketplace for that. It may encounter bother scaling up, relying on public opinion and the progress of FSD, but I doubt Musk goes to surrender on testing one in all his favourite initiatives in his yard. The person is dedicated to self-driving autos of all types, so I anticipate that nothing wanting a critical accident will power him to take robotaxis off the streets. Even then, it’d simply be a short lived setback — Uber finally resumed autonomous testing after the death of Elaine Herzberg in March 2018.

There may be elements I have not thought-about. Perhaps some liberal Austinites will probably be prepared to disregard Musk’s politics for the sake of a journey dwelling from sixth Road — perhaps there are extra conservatives downtown than I am conscious of. In any occasion, we’ll discover out the reality very shortly, and that would decide how Tesla’s long-term autonomous plans go.

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